U.S.–Iran Talks Show No Breakthrough as Oil Falls and Gold Rises
Rubio said talks with Iran are not near a breakthrough while Trump signaled no new strikes for now; Brent settled down 5.85% Monday, Reuters reported.
What happened
CNBC reported that U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Sunday evening, Nov. 8, that talks with Iran are not on the verge of a breakthrough, and called some Iranian demands outrageous and ridiculous. CNBC said Tehran had proposed shortening the timetable for restarting talks from seven days to two. On Monday, according to CNBC, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said Tehran wants U.S. sanctions lifted and the war ended on all fronts before negotiations begin.
In a CNN interview on Sunday, President Donald Trump said renewed strikes on Iran were highly unlikely if talks produce a strong agreement on Iran's nuclear program and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, but he left open the possibility of strikes, CNBC reported. Reuters reported that Trump said military action is not necessary at this point, that he plans to hold off on new strikes after appeals from regional countries including Qatar's prime minister, and that he plans to keep a naval blockade in place for now. Reuters also reported that senior U.S. and Gulf officials doubt a peace deal is imminent.
CNBC also reported that U.S. Central Command announced Task Force Iron Gate on Saturday, Nov. 7, aimed at stopping the movement of weapons, dual-use technology, sanctioned materials and illicit revenue across Iran's land borders and the Caspian Sea.
Why traders watch it
CNBC described the conflict as more than eight months old and reported that oil prices fell after Trump's comments on strikes. Tim Waterer of KCM Trade told Reuters the market is focused on Trump's “more conciliatory tone” toward Iran since the midterms, and Reuters reported that shipping attacks around the Strait of Hormuz continue but have not forced a new risk premium into prices.
Bloomberg noted that oil and gold have mostly moved in opposite directions this year: higher energy prices feed inflation and tighter monetary policy, which weighs on gold because it pays no yield.
Market reaction
| Asset | Level | Basis (source) |
|---|---|---|
| Brent crude | $98.32 | Settlement, Friday Nov. 6 (CNBC) |
| Brent crude | $92.33 | As of 0102 GMT Tuesday; Brent had settled down 5.85% on Monday, its lowest since Aug. 31 (Reuters) |
| WTI crude | $90.83 | Settlement, Friday Nov. 6 (CNBC) |
| WTI crude | $86.50 | As of 0102 GMT Tuesday (Reuters) |
| Spot gold | $4,139 an ounce | As of 7:59 a.m. Singapore time Tuesday; gold rose 1.7% on Monday and 5% the previous week (Bloomberg) |
| 10-year Treasury yield | 4.88% | Monday (Bloomberg) |
Bloomberg reported that Treasury yields across the curve fell last week to their lowest since September, and that the 10-year yield rose to 4.88% on Monday, still below the levels above 5% it reached last month. The sources reviewed for this post did not report moves in defense or energy stocks, so none are given here.
What to watch next
CNBC reported that Rubio was traveling to Paris for a G7 foreign ministers' meeting. Trump's stated conditions, per CNBC, are a fully reopened Strait of Hormuz and a pledge that Iran never develops a nuclear weapon; Iran's stated precondition is the lifting of U.S. sanctions. Separately, October U.S. consumer price data is due Tuesday, Nov. 10, which Bloomberg said bond traders are watching.
Sources
- CNBC, 2026-11-09
- CNBC, 2026-11-08
- CNBC, 2026-11-06
- Reuters via Yahoo Finance, 2026-11-09
- Bloomberg via Yahoo Finance, 2026-11-09
- Bloomberg via Yahoo Finance, 2026-11-09
