Russian crude output rebounds as IEA says oil markets return to surplus
Russia's crude production rose 210,000 barrels a day to 8.73 million barrels a day in October, the IEA said, pushing global oil supply above demand for the first time since the Iran war began.
A surplus for the first time since the Iran war
Russia's crude oil production rose to 8.73 million barrels a day in October, a 210,000-barrel-a-day increase, as a rebound in Gulf shipments pushed oil markets into surplus for the first time since the Middle East conflict began, the International Energy Agency said Friday.
Global oil supply reached 105.4 million barrels a day in October, up 2.3 million barrels a day from September and up an "extraordinary" 5.3 million barrels a day since August, the IEA said. Observed global stocks rose by 52 million barrels in October, or 1.7 million barrels a day, the first increase since June.
The diesel deal — and why diesel is still tight
U.S. President Donald Trump struck a deal with President Vladimir Putin on October 9 to supply diesel to global markets. The Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control issued a general license authorizing certain transactions involving Russian-origin diesel through April 7, 2027.
Russia partially eased restrictions on diesel exports on October 10, Reuters reported, and the country's oil product exports rose 260,000 barrels a day to 1.49 million barrels a day, the highest since June, as gasoil shipments doubled to 270,000 barrels a day. Even so, persistent attacks on Russian energy infrastructure keep choking diesel supplies to international markets, and no diesel cargo has reached the United States yet.
- Russian crude output, October8.73 million barrels a day
- Russian output rise+210,000 barrels a day
- Global oil supply, October105.4 million barrels a day
- Global stocks rise, October52 million barrels
- IEA 2027 supply forecast+6.6 million barrels a day
What the IEA expects next
The IEA raised its fourth-quarter supply estimate by 3.3 million barrels a day and now forecasts a 6.6 million barrels per day increase in 2027. Higher export flows have strengthened supply expectations for the fourth quarter, with Middle East and Russia losses partly offset by growth from the United States, Canada, Brazil, Argentina and Guyana, which together are set to boost output by 1.6 million barrels a day this year.
Brent crude was up 0.91% at $96.69 in market data shown with the CNBC report. The IEA said the market is showing tentative signs of rebalancing, with global supplies surpassing demand for the first time since the outbreak of the war in Iran — though refinery capacity and refined product exports remain constrained.
