AI infrastructure stocks have lost $4.2 trillion since June
Manufacturers, utilities and miners tied to data-centre construction lost $4.2 trillion since June, a Financial Times analysis found, erasing nearly half of the $9.4 trillion gained over the prior year.
The 'picks and shovels' trade reverses
Manufacturers, utilities and miners tied to data-centre construction have lost $4.2 trillion in market value since June, according to a Financial Times analysis, as enthusiasm for the suppliers behind the artificial-intelligence boom fades.
The losses erased nearly half of the $9.4 trillion the group gained over the preceding year. The analysis found that the companies most closely associated with building data centres suffered the steepest declines, as investors reassessed how much of the AI build-out is already priced in.
Caterpillar leads the retreat
Caterpillar, a leading supplier of gas generators for data centres, has seen its market value fall 44%, or $214 billion, from its June 30 peak. Nuclear developer Oklo dropped 49%, while cooling specialist Comfort Systems and fibre-optic maker Corning each lost roughly half their value.
Barron's reported on November 5 that Caterpillar stock was down almost 50% from its 52-week high, with GE Vernova down about 35%. The Financial Times pointed to concerns about debt-funded construction and political resistance, and to voter-backed restrictions on new data-centre projects. Citi researchers expect greater volatility but consider widespread building bans unlikely.
- Market value lost since June$4.2 trillion
- Gain over the prior year$9.4 trillion
- Caterpillar, from June 30 peak-44%
- Caterpillar value lost$214 billion
- Oklo, since June-49%
The orders have not stopped
Operating results tell a different story from the share prices. Spending on data-centre construction in the United States, excluding chips and information-technology equipment, reached $96 billion in the year through September, according to government data cited by the Financial Times.
Caterpillar reported a record $78 billion backlog and 75% annual growth in power-generation sales, while Eaton said orders doubled. Some analysts expect backlogs to support revenue through 2027; others warn that customers reserving capacity with multiple suppliers could exaggerate underlying demand.
What to watch next
The next test of the AI trade comes on Tuesday, when Nvidia reports quarterly results after the market close. Barron's reported that the market now expects the largest cloud companies — Amazon, Meta, Alphabet and Microsoft — to spend roughly $875 billion on AI data centres next year, down from current projections of $1.1 trillion.
Traders will also watch whether the builders' backlogs keep growing, and whether local restrictions on new data centres spread beyond the ballots already passed. For now, the market is repricing the boom, not cancelling it: the cranes are still up, but the valuations have come back to earth.
