Trump may hold off new Iran strikes as allies urge restraint, Reuters reports
President Donald Trump has told senior advisers he may hold off on attacking Iran if Tehran and the Houthis avoid new provocations, Reuters reported, citing three people familiar with the matter.
A possible pause, not a decision
President Donald Trump has told senior advisers in recent days that he may hold off on attacking Iran if the United States faces no new provocations from Tehran or the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen, Reuters reported on Saturday, citing three people familiar with the matter. The report said Trump has alternated between threats of escalating the war and winding down hostilities, and that he does not appear to have made up his mind.
Trump launched the war with Israel in February, and he has repeatedly hinted that attacks would resume once the midterm elections were over. In a television interview on Thursday, he said he could end the war immediately, but was taking a longer and more civil path at the request of nations he is looking to protect. The war has pushed global fuel prices higher and proved unpopular with American voters, who handed control of Congress to the Democrats in the November 3 elections.
Allies urged restraint
Regional allies have pressed Trump to step back. In phone calls over the past two weeks, Trump asked Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan for their views, and both urged him not to resume attacks, according to a senior U.S. official and another person familiar with the matter.
Trump told the crown prince on October 31 that he was planning to attack after the elections, but the crown prince pleaded for him to hold off, arguing that economic sanctions against Iran were working, according to two more people familiar with the discussion. Trump has spoken with Erdogan three times since October 28, and a readout from their November 7 call stressed that tensions between Iran and the United States need to end. U.S. intelligence agencies have assessed that the naval blockade and sanctions are hurting the Iranian economy and would continue to put pressure on Tehran.
The market is already pricing in a pause
Oil prices have eased sharply as traders judged renewed attacks less likely. Prices spent every day of October above $100 a barrel, rising to a four-year high of $114 on the last trading day of the month, CNN reported, then plunged by $25 over the past week to their lowest point in three months, briefly falling below $90 a barrel on Tuesday. Oil consumption has fallen by 3.3 million barrels per day on average during the war, according to JPMorgan.
The blockade is also biting. Iran has exported zero oil through legitimate channels since August, and the embargo has sent Iran's annual inflation rate above 70% over the past year, the highest since World War II, CNN reported. The report stresses that no final decision has been made, and that the pause depends on Tehran and the Houthis avoiding new provocations.
- $114Oil's four-year high on the last day of October
- $25Oil's fall over the past week
- $90Level briefly breached on Tuesday
- 3.3 millionBarrels per day of oil demand lost in the war
- 70%Iran's annual inflation rate, highest since World War II
